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CREATING BUSINESS VALUES and PREDICTING STOCK PRICES by |
In a free economy, the long-term value of any business or company is always determined by its long-term competitive value to society. In a free economy, that value to society is expressed in the common-stock value of the company.
The net value of any activity to society can be determined by using Neotech principles identified in Information Packages I - III. Neotech IV applies those principles to determine the objective value of any individual, management, business operation, or nation. A person can use those same principles for being successful in business and for accurately predicting the long-range, common-stock value of any corporation.
Most stock and commodity forecasters are mystical. Indeed, such forecasters merely use their "sense" or feelings of the market to rationalize illusionary scenarios or "realities" of the future. To various degrees, those forecasters use objective facts and figures or various technical indicators as non-sequitur props to give their projection a sense of validity. But any appearance of validity is specious. By the time most valid facts or figures become available for forecasting, they already have been discounted in the price.
Indeed, with near-perfect market efficiency, all near-term prices move in unpredictable, random patterns. If a forecast turns out to be right, that rightness and duration of rightness are as much a coincidence as forecasting the flips of a coin. Thus, stock and commodity forecasting is generally invalid and mystical, even when promulgated by Wall-Street gurus and cloaked in the jargon of technical, cyclical, and fundamental analyses. Only by fully integrating the root causes of values, as done in Neotech IV, can long-term values of companies to their stockholders and society be reliably predicted.
Neotech IV is based on the following principle: All Honest, Long-Range Profits and Societal Values Generated by Business Arise from the Mystic-Free Standards of Capitalism[ 4 ] |
By reducing that above principle to concrete examples, this document will demonstrate that in a free economy the long-term values or common-stock prices are ultimately determined by the extent that management implements the mystic-free standards of capitalism to produce evermore competitive values for society. For investors and speculators, this information will provide a valid standard to predict the long-range profit growth of all businesses and their common-stock values. For businessmen and executives, Neotech IV will provide specific recommendations for implementing mystic-free capitalistic standards in order to increase the value of their company. Those recommendations will be supplemented with:
(a) A standard by which to identify those executives and employees who are genuine, long-range assets to their company.
(b) A standard by which to identify those executives and employees who are undermining the long-range value of their company.
(c) Standards for adopting a business philosophy around specific profit-oriented principles.
(d) Action required to expand both short-range and long-range profitability of a company.
The purpose of Neotech IV is to (1) provide a standard to judge the future financial value of business enterprises, (2) provide specific standards to increase the financial value of business enterprises, and (3) contrast the wealth-producing mystic-free nature of business to the wealth-destroying mystical nature of altruism and neocheating.
Long-term appreciation of common-stock values will occur to the extent that management implements the mystic-free standards of capitalism. Conversely, long-term attrition of common-stock values will occur to the extent that management compromises capitalistic standards in implementing mystical-based decisions. ...Attrition of value is inherent to any business situation subjected to altruism, mysticism, or neocheating.
Before Neotech, the standards of capitalism had never been related to the value of a company in concise terms. The relationship of capitalistic standards to the common-stock value of a corporation can best be illustrated through an actual example of a large American corporation. This illustration will be accomplished by paraphrasing the following document submitted years ago to the administrative management of E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., Inc.:
A Proposal to Increase the Value
To effectively present this proposal, the following four aspects around which the proposal evolves must be identified:
After identifying those aspects, the proposal can be presented in its proper context. The proposal will entail the following recommendations:
Over the past decade, the owners of Du Pont (the stockholders) have observed with mounting disappointment the declining ability of management to expand the profitability of their corporation. What is the reason for that growing impotence? Many reasons have been advanced in business and financial publications[ 5 ]. But management's explanations failed to deal with the crucial issues. And their mystical remedies by nature have accelerated the deterioration. The honest reason for the shrinking profit growth has never been publicly identified. This proposal will identify that reason.
This proposal will also demonstrate that (1) restoration of Du Pont's vitality is still possible, (2) long-range growth in profitability will require action recommended by this proposal, and (3) implementation of this proposal would unleash a productivity/creativity cycle within the Du Pont Company that could generate values and profits outstripping any business enterprise on earth.
Based on mystic-free principles, this proposal is designed to meet the fundamental requirements of expanding profitability.
The purpose of this proposal is to increase the long-range, common-stock value of Du Pont for the financial benefit of its stockholders.
Capitalism is a moral/social system as well as an economic system based on the philosophical premise that every man and woman has the exclusive right to his or her own life and property. Implementing capitalism always yields by nature a benevolent society in which individuals deal with one another on the basis of values -- the voluntary exchange of values. Force and coercion are obviated. Capitalism is consistent with man's rational needs and requirements for prosperity and happiness.
Altruism is a morality based on the philosophical premise that man lives for the sake of others...that man's life and property are available for sacrifice to "higher" causes, e.g., the common good, society, the needy, the world, the dictator, God, country, politicians, bureaucrats, lawyers. Implementing altruism always yields by nature a malevolent society in which individuals deal with one another on terms of who will be sacrificed to whom, who will support whom. Force becomes the deciding factor. Fake jobs and bogus livelihoods grow like cancer. ...Altruism is contrary to man's nature, rational needs, and requirements for happiness.
Before applying the concepts of capitalism and altruism to Du Pont and its common-stock price, those concepts must first be viewed from the broader perspective of contemporary Western culture:
Capitalism has lifted man's standard of living to undreamt heights. As will be demonstrated in this document, all long-term benefits to man's life, well being, and happiness have grown from competitive capitalistic principles.
Yet today, a growing number of altruistic businessmen are undermining capitalism. How?
Man is capable of achieving genuine prosperity and happiness only to the extent that he can produce competitive values for others and society through the rational, wide-integration use of his mind and constant, hard-work effort. That fact is based on the nature of man. Man must competitively produce for others to honestly meet both his physical and emotional needs.
Hidden beneath the words of all altruists are calls for sacrifice, "temporary" hardship, and periods of readjustment. Those calls for sacrifice are incongruously combined with promises that man can attain values without earning them. All altruists seek an unreal world based on feelings and wishful thinking...a mystical world free of demands for rational integrated thinking and competitive hard efforts. A mystical world that always moves away from the problem-solving nature of life. Indeed all mystics seek the goal of effortless, "peaceful" nirvana -- a problem-free utopia. In their utopia, man can defy reality...man can usurp values without earning them...man can consume without producing...man can live effortlessly without solving problems. Reality, however, cannot be defied. Someone has to produce values and solve problems in order for human beings and society to survive and prosper. Thus, to survive and prosper, altruists and other value destroyers must deceive and coerce the value producers into sacrificing their time, efforts, property, and earnings to the value destroyers.
The altruists' final goal is to coerce or force all value producers to support and respect them, the value destroyers. The motive and ability to produce competitively and in abundance for others vanish when the producer becomes controlled by the nonproducers. Who would be responsible for such an evil, for such an unjust scourge to fall upon our civilization? Ironically, the political leaders, religious leaders, freeloaders, collectivists, and other value destroyers would not be primarily responsible. Those responsible will be the altruistic neocheaters posing as business "leaders". Such uncompetitive business quislings are today implanted throughout business and industry worldwide.
Those executives will bear the responsibility for the demise of their companies and free-market capitalism. Their altruistic principles are inimical contradictions to the principles of competitive capitalism. Through such business quislings, the sacrifice of the value producers and businesses is possible. Indeed, those quislings are the transmission belt between the value producers and the value destroyers.
But, the implementation of the capitalistic principles presented in this proposal would render impotent those altruists who are currently in positions of corporate power. For, without those altruistic business quislings, the value destroyers would be powerless to sacrifice the value producer. Their demands for sacrifice would go unanswered. The decline of capitalism would end. A new renaissance would begin. Civilization would rise to a new standard of rationality. Benevolence and goodwill among men would flourish. Man's productivity and happiness would soar.
How do those concepts of business, capitalism, and altruism relate to the common-stock value of Du Pont? This is how:
Man requires self-interest motives to be productive and creative. Man achieves happiness through his productive and creative efficacy. That is the nature of man. When altruistic businessmen assume managerial positions within a corporation, their standards of selflessness and sacrifice are asserted to allow them to neocheat rather than to earn their way to competitive power and wealth. Since selflessness and sacrifice are contrary to value production and competitiveness, the producer's efficacy will diminish. His job effectiveness will decrease, and the future of his company will fade. Thus, as altruistic executives translate their standards into practice, the value of their company to stockholders and society shrinks.
Do such men exist within the Du Pont management? How can they be identified? They are characterized by their lack of singular purpose to create long-range assets, values, and profits. They are also characterized by their willingness to subjugate the best interests of the corporation and its stockholders to some fake "higher cause" or spurious "public good". Altruists can achieve their unearned ends only by sacrificing the values earned by others...such as the assets, profits, and earning potential of a corporation. They are eager to sacrifice that which has been earned and built by others. They are willing to sacrifice the stockholders' equity, potential, and property to "higher causes".
Within Du Pont there has been a gradual shift in the nature of the management from the objective, pro-capitalistic asset builder to the altruistic, socially-oriented "business leader". That shift continues under such sophistic rhetoric as "being practical", "the wave of the future", "young blood", "changing reality", "progressive needs", "social awareness", "public good", "higher causes". At the same time, the concepts of objectivity, efficacy, happiness, competence, effort, productivity, and profits are being increasingly subverted. ...These assertions about Du Pont management will be demonstrated
with concrete facts later in this proposal.
Whenever long-range values are created by business, society benefits. By far, the greatest beneficiary of a profitable business is society. But the basic reason for operating any business can never be to "serve" society short range at the expense of long-range assets and earning, lest the business be eventually drained and stagnated. The only just and moral reason to operate a business is to benefit its owners through the production of competitive values for others and society. Only to the extent that owners profit can employees, society, or anyone else gain long-term values and benefits. Consequently, a business run for the best long-range financial profit of its owners will always yield the maximum, long-range benefits to society. Conversely, only by producing maximum values for society can a business produce maximum, long-range profits for its stockholders. ...That is the benevolent nature of capitalism.
Capitalism means producing competitive values (products or services) for the voluntary exchange of other values (money for further production of values). Success in a capitalistic society requires honesty, rationality, effort, wide integrations, and long-range planning. The standards of capitalism permit man to profit only by competitively producing for the benefit of others and society. The standards of capitalism allow man to fulfill his potential and to achieve happiness to the benefit of all society.
How does the above principle apply to the common-stock value of Du Pont? The common-stock price is the accurate value of a company because that price represents the exact value that buyers are willing to pay for the company in a free market. Over time, a company is worth no more or no less than its free market price (its common-stock price). Executives are hired by the stockholders for one reason only...to enhance the long-range financial value of their business enterprise in order to increase profits and common-stock values. For long-term appreciation of stock values, an enterprise must increasingly deliver competitive values to society.
The value of an executive is judged by the extent that he generates values for the shareholders in exchange for his compensation. In order to enhance the long-range value of a business enterprise to its owners and society, an executive must implement the principles of competitive capitalism. The altruistic executive militates against the value of his company to the extent that he directs his company. That executive does not earn his pay. For, he diminishes rather than builds the long-term value of his company.
To survive, the altruistic executive must constantly draw on the future potential of his company in a turmoil of short-range pragmatic activities that conceal the long-range damage being done to the business. At first, such an executive may blame declining stock prices on "temporary" market conditions. As the corporate assets are consumed and return on investment diminishes, the executive will blame competition, inflation, deflation, "maturing business", the "inevitable", "hard luck", or a "changing reality" for the decline in stock prices.
As solutions, he may offer platitudes and schemes of short-range economies, "belt tightenings", "creative" accounting procedures, acquisitions, and other one-shot expediencies. Within the downward trend, the stock price may periodically fluctuate upward for durations of a few months or even years. But the downward trend always returns with ever-deepening losses.
When the company is finally destroyed, he will claim that events were beyond his control and the ruins were not his fault. He will plead that he had to be practical and cooperate with the altruistic "authorities". He will not identify that operating on competitive capitalistic principles is the only honest, sound way to build values and assets. He will not identify that altruism dishonestly destroyed the value of his company. He will not identify that altruism can never be used to benefit society. But he will secretly know that altruism has always been no more than a clever tool to covertly promote bogus livelihoods.
To repeat again the principle upon which this proposal rests:
The Proof
Proof of the second assertion is based on an abundance of factual evidence. A portion of this evidence will be documented with quotes from the following, publicly available communications: The management is responsible for the thematic content and philosophical timbre of all internal and external communications released by a company. Perhaps nowhere is the philosophical position of Du Pont management reflected more precisely than in its Management Newsletter. A chronological review of the Newsletter over twenty years starkly reveals the progressive abandonment of objective capitalistic principles for subjective social pragmatisms. During that abandonment of principles, decisions are increasingly made by what some shadowy external "authority" might say or think rather than by independent judgment of reality by strong, honest executives.
Past Newsletter articles reveal a strong, exuberant company guided mainly by capitalistic principles. But current Newsletter articles reveal a company guided by altruism and by what "other people" think, feel, and wish. That shift is demonstrated below by contrasting earlier articles in the Management Newsletter to articles twenty years later in Management Newsletter.
Reading those early Newsletters is like traveling into another world...a brilliantly clear world that almost was and should have been...a happy, just world in which rationality and productivity are recognized as man's primary virtues...a cheerful, exciting business world in which action is guided by the independent judgment of individuals dedicated to generating values and profits. The philosophical contrast (capitalism vs. altruism) between those early Newsletters and those twenty years later is clearly apparent. Yet, the seeds for that deterioration of capitalistic principles began to appear even in the earliest Newsletters. With increasing manipulation of unearned guilt in an increasingly altruistic culture, obsequious apologies for capitalism and Du Pont were appearing in articles such as:
Big vs. Little Business A basic shift in philosophy was apparent. The primary focus of Du Pont changed from generating profits for the stockholders to "serving society". The following articles began appearing for the first time:
Du Pont Research -- President Copeland equated the value of research to serving "society" rather than to expanding corporate earnings, profits, and assets. Could nylon have been developed and transformed into a venture that generated hundreds of millions of dollars in profits for the company, employees, stockholders, and society with an altruistic standard determining the research and development efforts at Du Pont? Commercial ventures that generate large, expanding profits for their stockholders can evolve only from capitalistic standards. As Others See Us This article signalled the acceptance of a standard whereby management replaces independent judgment with "what others think" as a valid basis for action. Research for Government Nonprofit research done at the expense of the stockholders. Why? For what purpose and at whose sacrifice? Only destructive altruism could justify such research. Despite the basic philosophical shift to altruism, some articles such as the one listed below continued to uphold the values of Du Pont:
Industrial Research in Internal Competition This article dealt with the competitively effective utilization of human skills within the Du Pont Company. The second and most devastating step in the philosophical shift occurred when the presidency of Du Pont passed from Mr. Lammont Copeland to Mr. Charles B. McCoy. The personal experience of research scientist Dr. Frank R. Wallace must be related to demonstrate that philosophical shift. After joining the Company, Dr. Wallace studied each issue of the Management Newsletter. The articles captured the exciting action and values evolving from the most creative, capitalistic enterprise in history. The Newsletter symbolized supreme human action, creativity, and rationality. The Newsletter was a major source of pleasure and fuel in concretizing man's worth and potency. When the first shift occurred under Mr. Copeland, Dr. Wallace failed to identify what had occurred. In reading the Newsletters, he subconsciously ignored or dismissed the altruistic-based articles while savouring the articles expressing the action and values of Du Pont. After seven years, Dr. Wallace left Du Pont for three years. On returning, he read with amazement the current Management Newsletter. The feature article was entitled: Did a multi-billion-dollar corporation have nothing more significant to report to its management than a plant tour[ 6 ] for town folk? At that time, Dr. Wallace did not understand why such an article should appear in the Management Newsletter. As the months passed, he read articles such as outlined in Table 1. ...Gradually he began to understand what was happening.
The second and final step in the abandonment of capitalistic principles was occurring. In essence, all the greatness of Du Pont was being reduced and equated to a plant tour for town folks...an age-old, altruistic technique of mystically reducing man's greatest achievements to the pedestrian level.
In this seemingly innocent manner, the door had been opened to sacrifice the values of Du Pont. ...How can a philosophy expressed in the Management Newsletter lead to the sacrifice of Du Pont?[ 7 ] Consider the nature of other communications that emanated from Du Pont with Management sanction. Those communications ranged from a popular, heavily-attended seminar titled Application of Social Science Technology to Du Pont[ 8 ] to publications like Better Living (analyzed next) and speeches by key executives (analyzed later and in Table 4). The direct impact of management's current philosophy on Du Pont's business was reflected in a Du Pont seminar entitled, The Future of the Fiber Business. That seminar projected a steady decay of Du Pont's return on its fiber investment despite an optimistic market and growth picture for synthetic fibers.
That seminar was presented by the Du Pont textile-fiber management to the Executive Committee. No plan or consideration to reverse the deteriorating financial situation was offered or even considered. The gloomy nonaction stance by management to correct a suicidal business trend coupled with the anticapitalistic (government controlled) economic philosophy of Keynes accepted by Du Pont economists and management[ 9 ] are the essences for the systematic, long-range deterioration of Du Pont. With bizarre irony, the "modernistic" cover of Du Pont's Annual Report that year symbolized the purposeful destruction of values: The marvelous, industrial works of man were photographed part in-focus, part blurred, and part double exposed. Why, for what reason, for what purpose was a clear, sharp value purposely distorted and blurred into a non-value?
Table 1
Generated by Business
Arise from the Mystic-Free Standards of Capitalism
The following graph provides proof of the first assertion. The steady, long-term deterioration of Du Pont common-stock values is proof that the Company is not being managed in the best financial interest of its stockholders. That fact becomes especially obvious when the deteriorating stock price is superimposed against a composite of all other 1360 stocks on the
New York Stock Exchange.
This documentation will demonstrate the extent that altruism has gripped the Du Pont Company and the consequences of abandoning competitive capitalistic principles.
Is Big Business Useful? A study of the Newsletters reveals that the philosophical shift from capitalism to altruism occurred in two major steps. The first step occurred when the presidency of Du Pont passed from Mr. Crawford H. Greenewalt to Mr. Lammont Copeland. The struggle to explicitly uphold capitalism abruptly ended. Articles such as listed below ceased: Business Pleads its Case in Whispers Mr. Greenewalt stated, "It is the corporation's proper duty to oppose any action which threatens the property or the interests of its stockholders, to fight hard if the well-being of its employees is threatened, or if the successful continuity of its life comes under fire." U.S. Superiority and Productivity vs. USSR
Industrial Progress Undermines Socialism
The Plant Open House,
A Way to Win Friends and Influence People.
Creating Business SuccessARTICLES IN DU PONT MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTERS